UFC 138: Leben vs. Munoz
| Sport: | MMA |
| Promotion: | UFC |
| Date: | Nov. 5, 2011 |
| Venue: | LG Arena |
| City: | Birmingham, United Kingdom |
| Broadcast: | Pay-Per-View |
Straight Bet
Renan Barao (-130)
Renan Barao vs. Brad Pickett
Breakdown
Renan Barao vs. Brad Pickett
At this point Barao has won a ton of fights in a row and I think he wins the striking exchanges on the feet where he is able to land the more fluid shots and avoid being hit by Pickett. If it goes to the ground Barao is a black belt bjj and should have no problem fighting or pulling off a submission win.
Stake: 5%
Prediction
| Renan Barao | vs. | Brad Pickett |
| -130 | Odds | +100 |
| 56.5% | Market % | 50.0% |
| 60.00% | Bet on Combat % | 40.00% |
| +3.5% | Inefficiency % | -10.0% |
| Renan Barao - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -130 |
| Risk: | $5900.00 |
| To Win: | $4538.46 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Renan Barao defeats Brad Pickett via Submission (rear naked choke) at 4:09 of round 1.