UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor

Sport: MMA
Promotion: UFC
Date: Nov. 12, 2016
Venue: Madison Square Garden
City: New York, New York, United States
Broadcast:
Parlay Bet

Frankie Edgar  Joanna Jedrzejczyk - (-164)

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor)
Frankie Edgar vs. Jeremy Stephens (UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor)

Breakdown

Frankie Edgar vs Jeremy Stephens

Edgar is the better overall fighter who has multiple paths to take this fight about any where he wants to go. Edgar's footwork, speed, and wrestling give him the edge and I expect him to out strike Stephens and land some take downs along the way. Edgar by decision.

 

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

This fight will be standing the whole time and Karolina just isn't on the level of Joanna when it comes to striking. Joanna is just too quick and more technical for Karolina so she will out strike Karolina and win a decision. 

 

Stake: 7%

Prediction

Frankie Edgar  Joanna Jedrzejczyk - Parlay Bet
Odds:-164
Risk:$7000.00
To Win:$4268.29
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Frankie Edgar defeats Jeremy Stephens via Decision (unanimous) (30-27, 30-27, 29-28).

Joanna Jedrzejczyk defeats Karolina Kowalkiewicz via Decision (unanimous) (49-46, 49-46, 49-46).

 

Win

Straight Bet

Conor McGregor (-120)

Eddie Alvarez vs. Conor McGregor

Breakdown

Conor McGregor vs. Eddie Alvarez

From a purely technical perspective, Eddie does get hit a lot while throwing wild hooks and coming up against a precise, ko artist and dynamic striker like Conor, that won’t be a good recipe for success. Also, Eddie’s wrestling credentials are nowhere near Chad Mendes’s but I expect him to still shoot a lot. I don’t expect Eddie Alvarez to want to trade strikes on the feet with Conor. I think Conor catches Eddie in or out of a clinch attempt and ends it. Regarding his antics outside the cage, I wouldn’t put much weight one way or the other. At -120 odds, this is a value bet. Just like the Tyron Woodley vs Stephen Thompson fight, we may add more money as the line keep going to move in our favor.

Stake: 10% 

Prediction

Eddie Alvarez vs. Conor McGregor
+105 Odds -120
48.8% Market % 54.5%
35.00% Bet on Combat % 65.00%
-13.8% Inefficiency % +10.5%
Conor McGregor - Straight Bet
Odds:-120
Risk:$12000.00
To Win:$10000.00
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Conor McGregor defeats Eddie Alvarez via TKO (punches) at 3:04 of round 3.

Win

Straight Bet

Khabib Nurmagomedov (-180)

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Michael Johnson

Breakdown

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Michael Johnson

The wrestling and grappling of Khabib is just too much to handle and it doesn't matter who you are more times than not Khabib will get his hands on you and when he does he will take you down and hold you there. Khabib wins unanimous decision.

Stake: 10%

Prediction

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Michael Johnson
-180 Odds +165
64.3% Market % 37.7%
75.00% Bet on Combat % 25.00%
+10.7% Inefficiency % -12.7%
Khabib Nurmagomedov - Straight Bet
Odds:-180
Risk:$18000.00
To Win:$10000.00
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Khabib Nurmagomedov defeats Michael Johnson via Submission (kimura) at 2:31 of round 3.

Win

Straight Bet

Stephen Thompson (-170)

Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson

Breakdown

Stephen Thompson vs. Tyron Woodley

I think Stephen Thompson should be a 4-to-1 betting favorite heading into this fight, which makes him a great bet at the current odds. Thompson is a significantly better striker than Tyron Woodley and has excellent takedown defence, which means that it’s going to be difficult for Woodley to take him down and keep him down. I see Thompson picking Woodley apart for 5 rounds en route for a unanimous decision. I called Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson’s last 7 fights, and I understand just how good he is.

Stake: 7%

Prediction

Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson
+140 Odds -170
41.7% Market % 63.0%
25.00% Bet on Combat % 75.00%
-16.7% Inefficiency % +12.0%
Stephen Thompson - Straight Bet
Odds:-170
Risk:$12500.00
To Win:$7352.94
Outcome:Push

Outcome:

Tyron Woodley vs Stephen Thompson Draw (majority) (47-47, 47-47, 48-47).

All that stress for a push. Thompson should have been a winner but at least I get my money back. As I told many of you I put my money where my mouth is. Show me another bettor that bets figures like this and is a long term winner. There are none!

Push

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