UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
| Sport: | MMA |
| Promotion: | UFC |
| Date: | Sept. 21, 2019 |
| Venue: | Mexico City Arena |
| City: | Mexico City, Mexico |
| Broadcast: | ESPN+ |
Alexa Grasso (-117)
Breakdown
Carla Esparza vs. Alexa Grasso
Alexa Grasso’s last performance against Karolina Kowalkiewicz is incredibly promising to say the least. I see Esparza getting few takedowns in the first round, but those takedowns become real difficult when you’re getting jabbed in the face over and over again. And on the gound, I expect Grasso staying busy from the bottom, and once the fight return to the feet, I see Grasso slugged it out and knock Esparza out before the end of the third rounds.
Stake: 3
Prediction
| Carla Esparza | vs. | Alexa Grasso |
| +105 | Odds | -117 |
| 48.8% | Market % | 53.9% |
| 35.00% | Bet on Combat % | 65.00% |
| -13.8% | Inefficiency % | +11.1% |
| Alexa Grasso - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -117 |
| Risk: | $15000.00 |
| To Win: | $12820.51 |
| Outcome: | Loss |
Outcome:
Carla Esparza defeats Alexa Grasso via Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–28, 29–28).
I have to rewatch that fight but it seemed like a horrible decision to me. While I feel Alexa won, I can easily see how people felt otherwise. You could make a strong case for a 10-8 third round for Grasso. Carla did’t do much on the ground. Alexa broke Esparza’s nose and arm. I thought she won the fight, the first and third rounds. She was on her back a good amount of time, but she was more active with strikes and submission attempts than Carla was on top. I just don’t think top control should win you a fight when the other fighter is active and landing and causing that amount of damage. Wrestling is a great tool for MMA fighters, but it should be seen as a means to an end, not something that outweighs actual fighting. I hate decisions like this, where you win the fight by simply lying on top of the other fighter even though you got beat. I credit Grasso for fighting back. Just a little too late, unfortunately. Esparza won despite being a +130 underdog while Grasso was a -155 favorite.
Loss
Sergio Pettis (-260)
Breakdown
Sergio Pettis vs. Tyson Nam
Stake: 5%
Prediction
| Sergio Pettis | vs. | Tyson Nam |
| -260 | Odds | +220 |
| 72.2% | Market % | 31.3% |
| 75.00% | Bet on Combat % | 25.00% |
| +2.8% | Inefficiency % | -6.3% |
| Sergio Pettis - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -260 |
| Risk: | $26000.00 |
| To Win: | $10000.00 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Sergio Pettis defeats Tyson Nam via Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27).
Flyweight contender Sergio Pettis comfortably picked his shots nicely for three rounds, outpointing Tyson Nam to take a unanimous decision victory. Pettis proved his -260 favorite status true while Nam closed +240.