UFC on Fox: Holm vs. Shevchenko

Sport: MMA
Promotion: UFC
Date: July 23, 2016
Venue: United Center
City: Chicago, Illinois, United States
Broadcast:
Prop Bet

Fight goes the distance (-160)

Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko

Breakdown

Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko

I am expecting Holm to beat Shevchenko as we already bet her straight at -160. However, after seeing the line moved so much in the last couple days, I decided to edge our straight bet with a prop 'Fight goes the distance' in the event Holly doesn't show up like we are expecting her to perform. I feel Holm has everything to get back the belt but she seems so nervous at the weigh-in, it make me question her mental preparation.   

Stake: 3%

Prediction

Fight goes the distance - Straight Bet
Odds:-160
Risk:$3000.00
To Win:$1875.00
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Valentina Shevchenko defeats Holly Holm via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46).

 

Win

Straight Bet

Holly Holm (-160)

Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko

Breakdown

Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko

After a brutal submission lose to Miesha Tate, I am expecting Holm to come back with a much better game plan this time around. Her ability to keep distance with her jab and leg kicks should be enough to win rounds. The movement of Holly will be the x factor in this fight and I believe her footwork is better than Shevchenko. Holm will press the action more and throw more volume which in turn makes more chances to score on the judges cards. Holm out strikes Shevchenko to win a decision. As with every play we released, I feel confident enough to bet Holm at this very cheap price but not much more than 2%.

Stake: 2%

Prediction

Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko
-160 Odds +140
61.5% Market % 41.7%
70.00% Bet on Combat % 30.00%
+8.5% Inefficiency % -11.7%
Holly Holm - Straight Bet
Odds:-160
Risk:$1600.00
To Win:$1000.00
Outcome:Loss

Outcome:

Valentina Shevchenko defeats Holly Holm via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46).

Loss

Straight Bet

Edson Barboza (-190)

Edson Barboza vs. Gilbert Melendez

Breakdown

Edson Barboza vs. Gilbert Melendez

I think we're about to see the best version of Barboza in this fight against Melendez. Don't be surprise to see him KO Gilbert by a flashy technique on the feet.

Stake: 7%

Prediction

Edson Barboza vs. Gilbert Melendez
-190 Odds +165
65.5% Market % 37.7%
75.00% Bet on Combat % 25.00%
+9.5% Inefficiency % -12.7%
Edson Barboza - Straight Bet
Odds:-190
Risk:$9500.00
To Win:$5000.00
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Edson Barboza defeats Gilbert Melendez via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28).

Win

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